Development of a nomogram for prediction of successful membrane sweeping
Publication/Presentation Date
5-1-2019
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of obstetric, maternal, and fetal variables with successful membrane sweeping and to develop a calculator that can predict spontaneous delivery within 24 hours of membrane sweeping.
METHODS: This secondary analysis of the STRIP-G Study included all singleton term parturients who underwent membrane sweeping in a tertiary center in October 2011 to July 2013. Primary end point was a 24-hour time interval from sweeping to delivery. Women who delivered without formal induction within the 24-hour interval were included in the "successful sweeping group". Stepwise logistic regression was used to calculate the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for successful membrane sweeping and to create the calculator. The predictive power of the calculator was evaluated by area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and by Nagelkerke R-square. The model was validated by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and by these validation measures: sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value.
RESULTS: We analyzed data from 542 women. Parity (aOR = 1.66, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-2.54), cervical dilation (aOR = 3.33, 95%CI 2.04-5.44), and gestational age (aOR = 1.44, 95%CI 1.21-1.72) were independent predictors of spontaneous delivery during the first 24 hours. A cross validation procedure showed that the calculator had a good accuracy (68%).
CONCLUSIONS: A simple calculator based on maternal age, parity, gestational age, cervical dilatation, effacement and station, can accurately predict the chances of delivery within 24 hours of membrane sweeping. This may assist physicians better counseling of women regarding the likelihood of successful membrane sweeping.
Volume
32
Issue
9
First Page
1401
Last Page
1406
ISSN
1476-4954
Published In/Presented At
Haj Yahya, R., Ezra, Y., Berghella, V., Herzberg, S., Safrai, M., Reuveni Salzman, A., Abu Ahmad, W., & Kabiri, D. (2019). Development of a nomogram for prediction of successful membrane sweeping. The journal of maternal-fetal & neonatal medicine : the official journal of the European Association of Perinatal Medicine, the Federation of Asia and Oceania Perinatal Societies, the International Society of Perinatal Obstetricians, 32(9), 1401–1406. https://doi.org/10.1080/14767058.2017.1406472
Disciplines
Business Administration, Management, and Operations | Health and Medical Administration | Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods
PubMedID
29141473
Department(s)
Administration and Leadership
Document Type
Article