The Dunning‒Kruger effect in resident predicted and actual performance on the American Board of Emergency Medicine in-training examination.
Publication/Presentation Date
10-1-2024
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: The Dunning-Kruger effect (DKE) is a cognitive bias wherein individuals who are unskilled overestimate their abilities, while those who are skilled tend to underestimate their capabilities. The purpose of this investigation is to determine if the DKE exists among American Board of Emergency Medicine (ABEM) in-training examination (ITE) participants.
METHODS: This is a prospective, cross-sectional survey of residents in Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME)-accredited emergency medicine (EM) residency programs. All residents who took the 2022 ABEM ITE were eligible for inclusion. Residents from international programs, residents in combined training programs, and those who did not complete the voluntary post-ITE survey were excluded. Half of the residents taking the ITE were asked to predict their self-assessment of performance (percent correct), and the other half were asked to predict their performance relative to peers at the same level of training (quintile estimate). Pearson's correlation (
RESULTS: A total of 7568 of 8918 (84.9%) residents completed their assigned survey question. A total of 3694 residents completed self-assessment (mean predicted percentage correct 67.4% and actual 74.6%), with a strong positive correlation (Pearson's
CONCLUSIONS: EM residents demonstrated accurate self-assessment of their performance on the ABEM ITE; however, the DKE was present when comparing their self-assessments to their peers. Lower-performing residents tended to overestimate their performance, with the most significant DKE observed among the lowest-performing residents. The highest-performing residents tended to underestimate their relative performance.
Volume
5
Issue
5
First Page
13305
Last Page
13305
ISSN
2688-1152
Published In/Presented At
Gaeta, T. J., Reisdorff, E., Barton, M., Feldhaus, K. M., Gausche-Hill, M., Goyal, D., Joldersma, K., Kraus, C. K., & Ankel, F. (2024). The Dunning‒Kruger effect in resident predicted and actual performance on the American Board of Emergency Medicine in-training examination. Journal of the American College of Emergency Physicians open, 5(5), e13305. https://doi.org/10.1002/emp2.13305
Disciplines
Medicine and Health Sciences
PubMedID
39463809
Department(s)
Department of Emergency Medicine
Document Type
Article