Age as a predictor of osteoporotic fracture compared with current risk-prediction models.
Publication/Presentation Date
11-1-2013
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To compare several fracture risk-prediction models and their predictive values.
METHODS: Women older than age 49 years were sent for dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry screening between January 2007 and March 2009. Data collection included multiple osteoporosis risk factors. The ability to identify fractures was analyzed and compared using the North American Menopause Society 2006 and 2010 Position Statements, The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool, along with age alone. The area under the curve (AUC) comparison with chance (AUC 0.50) and paired AUC comparisons between models were used to investigate the efficacy of each model in predicting osteoporotic fractures.
RESULTS: Among the 615 women studied, with mean (standard deviation) age of 61.4 (8.3) years and 94.5% being white, 15 have experienced a fracture. All screening approaches were significantly better than chance at predicting fractures. Paired comparisons of the detection ability of fracture prediction models showed no significant differences. Age alone was a significant predictor for fracture (AUC 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-0.91, P
CONCLUSION: These data suggest that all current screening modalities are effective in predicting fracture but not significantly better than age alone. Age should be considered carefully while evaluating patients for osteoporosis screening and treatment.
LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II.
Volume
122
Issue
5
First Page
1040
Last Page
1046
ISSN
1873-233X
Published In/Presented At
Jiang, X., Westermann, L. B., Galleo, G. V., Demko, J., Marakovits, K. A., & Schnatz, P. F. (2013). Age as a predictor of osteoporotic fracture compared with current risk-prediction models. Obstetrics and gynecology, 122(5), 1040–1046. https://doi.org/10.1097/AOG.0b013e3182a7e29b
Disciplines
Medicine and Health Sciences
PubMedID
24104773
Department(s)
Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology
Document Type
Article